Tuesday, May 09, 2006
Conspiracy Theory
Or How I learnt to think illogically wild and love writing about it
All sensitive people (usu. men) know that after the end of any (or a particular) hectic activity, one begins to feel a little depressed. To beat that depression one needs to distract the mind and indulge in creative activities. To beat Tamil Nadu's post-election blues here is some distraction.
We all know, and it has been made evidently clear that Jayalalithaa has ambitions of central power. Quite a few of us are aware of the really funny guilty-by-association thingy Jaya TV's been airing about Karunanidhi's last film Kannamma and his alleged favour to Rajiv Gandhi assassination plot convict Nalini's family. If this is a conscious attempt to create a bit of a noise (and nothing more) in the centre, then Amma might just succeed, considering the dimwitted sycophants that populate Delhi. Add to this the Maran controversy with the Tatas. Congress-DMK relations might just be a little strained (not necessarily broken). While Amma does not have any MPs in Parliament to give thought to actually engineering a realignment in the centre, she might certainly like to muddy the waters. Karunanidhi has already been saying a few things about depending on the Centre to carry out his freebie schemes.
OK leaving that alone, there is the issue of the Left doing well in state elections. Added to that the (maybe unrelated) foreign policy development of a possible settlement in Nepal, the left might be seriously look at staking claim to more power in Delhi. They might even exploit the situation if there is serious internal differences in the Congress Party on the reservation issue. The DMK would not be averse to going the third front way in the centre.
This is where it gets interesting: Jaya is very unlikely to go along with a left-supported third front at the centre. She has no ideological issues in joining hands with the Congress, but she cannot hope to get any power for herself with the congress grooming the Gandhi family heirs to take over.
Let's leave that like that for now.
If you believe the exit polls, The DMK combine could win in TN; but significantly, the Congress and Left at the state level might have some gains, while the PMK should fare pretty poorly. If Jaya does succeed in breaking the Congress and the DMK, look at it this way—would she be able to make it to power in TN in a (hold your breath) alliance with the Congress? This is where we need to think a little, she would certainly not like to head a govt which has Congress MLAs as ministers. O Pannneerselvam fits the bill. If she does not go with the Congress, she might just sit it out and let the DMK run an inefficient minority government with the Left in TN.
I have always contended that Sonia is very very clever. She might then start sending out feelers to Amma even showing her the possibility of power at the state level, and therefore help with central election, by touting an ADMK Congress alliance in TN. Jaya in all probability might not go for it, but at the same time not say no, just to increasing her value at the central level.
Now the speculation is getting too off hand. Deep breath.
OK. The BJP is very headless (with even Mahajan gone). If testing waters with the Congress does not work, Jaya actually has better chances at the centre with the BJP. The NDA is very weak compared to the Congress, but with the third front mostly eating into the Congress votes at the central level, the NDA might even come back? That is where Jaya can actually do something (for herself). As such a scenario would be a few (maybe many) months from now, a possible weak DMK minority government at the State level (no Congress, but with Left support) would mean a swing in favour of the ADMK (the Congress would be finished for good at the State level then with neither Dravidian party beside it).
If Jayalalithaa can spearhead a good national level alliance in helping revive the NDA, then could Amma become PM???
I know it is a little too much, but hey, no more post-election blues now.
Comments to Conspiracy Theory
Update: After Maran, the Congress has more troble with TN MPs with Anbumani Ramdoss in the dock.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4755571.stm
Ooh... and would the ADMK have engineered this as well?
posted by 
Anand
too much is the word!
posted by neha vish
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