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Mdeii Life - Anand Krishnamoorthi's blog

Thursday, March 23, 2006

Ponniyin Selvi II and other stories

Ponniyin Selvi I

I was so terribly bored and thought that there was nothing good on TV. In fact I was pushed to watching crazy Japanese game shows on Pogo. Until Sonia Gandhi decided to sacrifice something, yet again.

There was a time when I was under the impression that she became Congress leaded by default, and was least likely to show any political acumen; but increasingly, she seems to rank amongst the most shrewd of Nehru-Gandhis. First she co-opted the Left's economic and political rhetoric (not uncommon for most Indian politicians); then she has, by resigning, thrown the ball squarely with left leaders who also find themselves in similar situations wrt to offices of profit. She has also wrested away the moral high-ground from a fairly dumbstruck BJP. With assembly elections around the corner, I suppose she can virtually annihilate any illusion of power the left seemed to flaunt and flex. Bloody hell... she's a smart one.

Now that I've started to talk politics, and having tasted speculative success after having been proved right about an England victory, let me also put forward my thoughts about the Tamil Nadu assembly elections. Despite the Congress showing strong national favour, their TN allies led by the DMK are, I suppose in for a bit of a beating. 'Amma' seems to be widely loved for her five years of decent governance, and more importantly 'Thatha' seems to have lost it with his own partymen by trying to push forward 'Thalapathi'. Bad opposition --> low anti-incumberency (duh!)

Now the net gainers in this election in TN, might just be the Congress party (surprise surprise); if, and it is a bloody big IF, they realise that they actually have favourable public opinion. Plus, do they have any strong leaders at the local level? PC is too far removed from state politics for now.

At the central level, Sonia seems to be building a party for the future. All her calculations are aimed at the next lok sabha polls, and for the future of the congress party, but as far as Tamil Nadu is concerned, there seems to be nobody after 'Amma'. Sure that she has quite a bit of political life left in her (a lot if you ask me), but to take over from her kind of politics, one needs a good local politician with her kind of shrewdness and foresight.

I do not see any immediate realignment of parties after the TN election results (why I am am so sure of it I do not know) Sonia is far too clever to not let go of the DMK so soon, without extracting a suitable congress led opposition leader to take over from Karunanidhi. If instead she chooses to go for the short-term gain and ally with 'Amma' ('Amma' might even agree to) the ADMK will find itself absolutely unrivalled in TN. Sonia seems to be way too clever to let that happen. She might start thinking about a TN Cong leader.

OK! Now that I have pretty much laid my cards out on the table, let's begin a bout of nice election speculation. (I somehow wish I could put some money on it—I seem to be so damn sure of things)


7:42 pm

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Comments to Ponniyin Selvi II and other stories

Heard about this term Cycle Revolution? Amma's silent strategy of giving free cycles to girl children in rural areas, that alone is getting her votes in rural Tamilnadu.

And I agree with you on ADMK winning this election (I myself voted DMK in all elections so far), but Congress I dount it will revive. My bets will be more on Vai Ko

posted by Blogger Chenthil 

5:37 pm, March 24, 2006
 

Hmmm... somehow forgot to count Vaiko in. Good point Chenthil

posted by Blogger Anand 

12:21 am, March 29, 2006
 

Vai koo has no chance if you ask me.

Did any of you guys see the "counter-offer" by the DMK. I saw Thatha offer Rs. 2 for rice, and free 2-acres of land for cultivation to each poor farmer.. and some such ridiculous stuff. Oh yeah.. and a colour TV set. Whose money? What money? Where money?? No one knows!

posted by Blogger Manu 

2:27 am, March 30, 2006
 

Hmm. No one seems to be talking of Vijaykanth here.

How come?

posted by Blogger swami 

4:56 am, April 02, 2006
 

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